Jan 11, 2010

The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory - A Review


The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory
I love this book! But solutions to some of the questions didn't sit well with me.

In "Hacking It", I felt the 2nd possible solution was the better bet compared to the 3rd because if you stayed at a well-paying job for a little while, you'd be able to have enough financially to start off as an independent contractor. Even if you had a lot of contacts, it won't matter much if you can't even stay afloat for a few months while waiting for payment from your clients.
Sometimes, I think the author is purposefully trying to make sure that the right solution never involves taking a life. While that is correct, I do wonder whether it made sense to let Napoleon live as in the "Nine Lives" quiz. I didn't think that the exile solutions were best because he was a popular guy. And I think he didn't escape from Elba without some help.
That means he could have done it again, even though it may take a while for his people to get to St. Helena. Even though executing him may have made him a martyr, I don't see how the French could have been mobilized to rise in arms without another charismatic and commanding character like Napoleon at the helms.
As for "Anniversary Tea Leaves", to simply ask the wife what she wanted, clearly shows that the husband did not make full use of the information accumulated in the 5 years of marriage. That's a lot of information. In other words, he didn't pay attention. Instead of asking her point-blank, how about asking people closest to her, like her friends, her sister or mother? Asking her is a solution but it wouldn't be so blatantly insensitive if he were to casually ask her like months way in advance instead.
Aside from that, perhaps Dr. Stein shouldn't have used so much of history, particularly business history as some of his quizzes. I have a feeling that a lot of business people may pick up this book and may be too well-versed in business history to really appreciate the science of decision-making.
Also, what's missing is that in decision-making, a lot of potential solutions present themselves. How do we shortlist the right ones before whittling down to that one right decision? That, is another book I would like to read.

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